{"id":60797,"date":"2025-01-28T15:00:04","date_gmt":"2025-01-28T04:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ppmfunds.com\/?p=60797"},"modified":"2025-01-28T15:00:04","modified_gmt":"2025-01-28T04:00:04","slug":"the-price-of-panic-why-market-timing-costs-more-than-you-think","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ppmfunds.com\/the-price-of-panic-why-market-timing-costs-more-than-you-think\/","title":{"rendered":"The Price of Panic: Why Market Timing Costs More Than You Think"},"content":{"rendered":"

Market timing versus long-term investing \u2013 it\u2019s a choice that really shows up during times like these. When markets are smoothly trending up, it\u2019s pretty easy to say you\u2019re a long-term investor who believes in the future earnings of your companies. But when questions start swirling about market direction, there\u2019s always that temptation to sell and \u201cbuy back in later.\u201d<\/h3>\n

Let\u2019s look at why that\u2019s usually not the best idea. Studies of market timing show some sobering numbers \u2013 if you\u2019re off by just a month on market tops and bottoms, you could end up with half the returns you\u2019d get from simply staying invested. Even the most skilled investors would struggle to get that timing right consistently over 20 years.<\/p>\n

What really matters is keeping your eye on what you own \u2013 companies with solid growth prospects and reasonable valuations. Sure, they won\u2019t go up in a straight line. They\u2019ll have their down days, sometimes when you least expect it. But if you\u2019re holding quality businesses, these market swings often turn out to be just background noise in the long run.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re at one of those moments now where this discipline is being tested. This doesn\u2019t mean blindly holding onto stocks that have become seriously overvalued. But there\u2019s a reason the most successful investors tend to focus on individual companies\u2019 prospects rather than trying to predict market crashes.<\/p>\n

Looking at what markets did in 2024, we saw some pretty impressive numbers. The global stock market index (MSCI) jumped 24.3%, though performance varied quite a bit by region. Taiwan was the star performer, up 31.7%, while markets in the UK (+9.6%) and Europe (+11.9%) posted more modest gains. US tech stocks continued their strong run, pushing the NASDAQ up 29.6%, and even China\u2019s market showed some recovery, with the CSI 300 up 18.2%.
\nBut here\u2019s some helpful context \u2013 when you look at returns over the past three years, things look quite different. Outside of Japan and Taiwan, even the stronger markets like Australia and the US S&P 500 only returned about 8.9% annually. European markets lagged, and Chinese markets lost ground during this period, mainly due to their property market and economic challenges.<\/p>\n

Market performance table (as of 31\/12\/2024)<\/h4>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

Market (in US$)<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

1 year %<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

3 Year % pa<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NIKKEI 225<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

21.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

13.8<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

TAIWAN TAIEX INDEX<\/span><\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

31.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

S&P\/ASX 200 INDEX<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

12.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

S&P 500 INDEX<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

25.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

NASDAQ COMPOSITE<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

29.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

Euro Stoxx 50 Pr<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

11.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

8.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

DOW JONES INDUS. AVG<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

15.0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

FTSE 100 INDEX<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

9.6<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

7.3<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

KOSPI INDEX<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-8.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-5.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

CSI 300 INDEX<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

18.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

-4.9<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

There\u2019s been a lot of talk about whether markets, especially tech stocks, have gotten too expensive. But this isn\u2019t quite like previous bubbles. While some caution is warranted regarding AI-focused stocks like Nvidia, many large technology companies demonstrate fundamental strength that wasn\u2019t present in previous bubbles, such as the 2000 dot-com era. These companies now generate healthy cash flow yields comparable to bond yields, with strong growth trajectories.<\/p>\n

On the interest rate front, we\u2019re seeing short-term rates fall in most developed economies as inflation pressures ease up. But central bankers are being careful not to declare victory too soon \u2013 they remember all too well what happened in the 1970s when they celebrated too early.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s interesting is that while short-term rates are dropping, longer-term bond yields have actually risen over the past year. In Australia, the 10-year bond yield is up 0.40% this year. Current yields around 4-5% suggest investors are looking at a future where central banks hit their 2-3% inflation targets, giving a modest but positive real return.<\/p>\n

Looking ahead, while some parts of the market (especially AI-related stocks) might look pricey, we\u2019re still finding good opportunities in companies with strong fundamentals and competitive advantages. Right now, it\u2019s more about picking the right stocks than making broad market calls \u2013 which fits right in with our approach of focusing on individual companies rather than trying to time the market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Market timing versus long-term investing \u2013 it\u2019s a choice that really shows up during times like these. When markets are smoothly trending up, it\u2019s pretty easy to say you\u2019re a long-term investor who believes in the future earnings of your companies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":60798,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-60797","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-knowledge-library"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Price of Panic: Why Market Timing Costs More Than You Think - Private Portfolio Managers<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Market timing versus long-term investing \u2013 it\u2019s a choice that really shows up during times like these. 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